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Lesson · Grade 3 · Mathematics

How Likely Is It? From Impossible to Certain

  • Grade 3
  • Mathematics
  • 1 min 13 s
  • British Columbia
  • BC3-MA-30

A bag of 4 counters starts with no red ones, so picking red is impossible. Each blue counter swapped for a red one moves red along a line through unlikely, equally likely (a 50-50 chance, like a coin toss or a half red, half blue spinner) and likely to certain. The video ends with a recap of all five words.

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In one sentence

The question this lesson answers

How likely is it that something will happen?

We can show how likely it is on a line, from impossible to certain.

Transcript

What the lesson says

How likely is it that something will happen?

We can show how likely it is on a line, from impossible to certain.

Let's pick one counter from this bag without looking.

The bag has 4 blue counters and no red ones.

So picking red is impossible: it cannot happen.

Now we swap one blue counter for a red one.

With 1 red and 3 blue, picking red is unlikely.

With 2 red and 2 blue, red and blue are equally likely.

That is a 50-50 chance, just like tossing a coin.

A spinner that is half red and half blue is 50-50 too.

With 3 red and 1 blue, picking red is likely.

With 4 red and no blue, picking red is certain: it happens every time.

Each red counter we swapped in made picking red more likely.

A chance can be impossible, unlikely, equally likely, likely or certain.

Curriculum

Where this fits

British Columbia, Grade 3

Mathematics, Data and probability: likelihood of simulated events, using comparative languageBC3-MA-30

Previous: Pictographs and Bar Graphs: One Picture, One Square, One Child

The outcomes and strands follow the British Columbia curriculum.

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